A Bearish Turn?


REFINANCING HAS DRIED UP IN THE COMMERCIAL LENDING MARKETS. TOTAL originations are down as a result. Yet there is no fear and loathing in commercial mortgage circles--at least that anyone owns up to on the record. The actual underlying real estate markets are in wondrous alignment in more markets than not. This is no mean feat.

We have heard much about the discipline that capital market financing has brought to commercial real estate. It seems to be more than just talk. In market after market we read about in this issue, the experts say there is more money than deals. In times past, this would have triggered rampant overbuilding. So what gives?

Finely sliced and better research data that's more widely available is empowering better models that gauge market harmony (or disharmony) between supply and demand. This new information-based discipline is certainly in evidence in the article about multifamily markets we feature this month. Written by Geoff Rubin, senior economist at Reis, Inc., New York, "Scouting Top Apartment Markets" offers more than a dozen tables and charts that help size up the nation's apartment markets. Carefully, Rubin cautions readers to pick their own particular quantitative path to...

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