New-home boom: demographics bode well for new-home demand. New immigrants and aging boomers are pacing a red-hot market. Affordability problems and higher rates are the wild cards in the future.

Mortgage Banking › Vol. 64 Nbr. 4, January 2004 ›

Author: Milligan, Jack

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Cover Report: Business Outlook

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New-home boom: demographics bode well for new-home demand. New immigrants and aging boomers are pacing a red-hot market. Affordability problems and higher rates are the wild cards in the future.

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free .... --PARTIAL INSCRIPTION ON THE STATUE OF LIBERTY

THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES FOR HOME builders around the country--and for the mortgage industry, which is desperately seeking The Next Big Thing as the refinance boom quickly dissipates in the face of rising interest rates. Although some housing economists and mortgage originators are forecasting a slight decline in new-home sales in 2004, the market should continue to perform strongly for the next couple of years. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) forecast, the decline will be roughly 126,000 fewer new-home sales in 2004.

"I'm optimistic about the future of home-building in our country overall," says Jack L. Haynes, an ex...

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